A weekly round-up of tanker and dry bulk market (Sept 27, 2024)

This report is produced by the Baltic Exchange.

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Capesize

This week saw significant positive momentum in the Capesize market. The BCI 5TC surged by US$3,436, closing the week at US$30,598, driven largely by robust activity in the North Atlantic region. Monday began with an encouraging uptick in both the Pacific and North Atlantic, pushing the BCI to US$27,162. Despite some uncertainty in the Pacific due to a miner withdrawing from the market, overall demand for forward dates provided support mid-week. The South Brazil and West Africa to China markets remained relatively subdued but showed resilience as offers held firm at US$28 on C3 and above. North Atlantic routes played a key role throughout the week, with consistent gains in transatlantic and fronthaul routes. By Thursday, the C8 index surged by US$6,535 to US$29,071, driven by key fixtures from a major charterer followed by a further increase of US$2,715 on Friday, to end the week at US$31,786. Overall, while the Pacific basin experienced some flatness, the Atlantic strength propelled the market forward, leading to a bullish end to the week.

Panamax

A lethargic week for the Panamax market, with limited action in the Atlantic in the South whilst the North of the region fared marginally better but insufficient to prevent the slow drifting of rates. Unsurprisingly activity eased in Asia, as the week progressed with impending Golden Week holidays, and despite some injection of fresh demand ex NoPac, this failed to make any profound impact, and rates drifted. Back in the Atlantic, voyage rumours referenced US$54,000 fio being agree for a US Gulf to China grain cargo for October dates, but precise details were lacking. In Asia, reports of US$15,000 being achieved a few times for NoPac trips on index type tonnage delivery Japan/Korea. Better period activity came to light this week, unconfirmed reports of US$17,000 being agreed for one year on a scrubber 82,000-dwt type delivery Japan, whilst US$17,000 was also achieved on an 76,000-dwt, delivery China basis 4/6 months.

Ultramax/Supramax

A rather lacklustre week from an Atlantic perspective with little excitement and rates generally losing ground as fresh demand remained weak from key areas. The South Atlantic particularly saw limited fresh enquiry a 60,000-dwt fixing from Santos to Chittagong at US$15,500 plus US$550,000 ballast bonus. From the US Gulf a 57,000-dwt fixed a trip to the East Mediterranean at US$18,500. By contrast the Asian arena started the week optimistically, a 63,000-dwt open China fixing a trip to Bangladesh at US$18,750, Further south, a 56,000-dwt open Manila fixed a trip via Indonesia redelivery Bangladesh at US$19,000. Whilst demand remained from the Indian Ocean rates remained relatively flat, a 63,000-dwt fixing delivery South Africa for a trip the Far East in the mid US$15,000s plus very low US$500,000s ballast bonus. However, with the upcoming holidays in China demand slowed as the week ended. Period action in the first half saw a 63,000-dwt open North China fixing short period at US$18,250.

Handysize

This week, the market saw a mixed performance with slight movements across both basins. Both the Continent and Mediterranean regions continued their positive momentum and market appearing more supported with rates edging slightly above previous levels. A 37,000-dwt open Varna 27 Sept reported fixed delivery aps Constanza to redelivery Banjul with grains US$11,000. In contrast, the South Atlantic faced ongoing challenges, with a lack of fresh inquiries and minimal activity. The U.S. Gulf market also remained subdued, showing signs of weakening support. A 37,000-dwt open Houston 24 Sep fixed delivery Southwest Pass redelivery Tampico (Gulf of Mexico) with grains US$17,000. In the Pacific, activity stayed robust, with sentiment maintaining an optimistic tone, tonnage availability remained tight, while the cargo book showed healthy volumes. A 37,000-dwt vessel open in Tianjin was reported fixed a trip to Indonesia US$16,500.

Clean

LR2

LR’s in the MEG continued their upward track this week albeit in a somewhat restrained fashion. TC1 climbed 6.64 points taking the index to WS147.78. For a voyage to the west on TC20 the index rose a modest 78,000 to around the US$4,610,000 mark.

West of Suez, Mediterranean/East LR2’s on TC15 held relatively flat seeing an incremental improvement of US$37,500 to US$3,090,000.

LR1

In the MEG, LR1’s hopped up optimistically early in the week. On a TC5 run 55kt CPP AG/Japan the index jumped 7.5 points to WS170 points where it looks to have plateaued for the moment. For a voyage west on TC8 the index has settled up at the end of the week at US$3,900,000 (+US$71,500) .

On the UK- Continent, the TC16 index held firm for the second week on week at around the WS115 level.

MR

MEG MR’s have taken yet another recorrect down this week. The TC17 index was assessed 24.29 points lower than this time last week to WS185.

UK-Continent MR’s faced their own woes this week. TC2 dropped nearly 20% across the week and saw the index dip below WS100 for the first time since September 2021, its currently marked at WS94.56. TC19 in turn also shed 23.75 points off its value to WS113.83.

USG MR’s had their fair share of negative pressures this week. TC14 went from WS135 to WS120 with the Baltic TCE for the run just managing to hold over the US$10,000 per day round trip. TC18 followed and is currently pegged at WS171.43 (down WS17.5). For a run down to the Caribbean on TC21 we saw the index cut down a little over 20% to US$477,143, the lowest it’s been for a year.

The MR Atlantic Triangulation Basket TCE lost US$5,645 to US$16,251.

Handymax

In the Mediterranean, Handymax’s were battered down 29.72 points to WS102.91 and the Baltic round trip TCE for the run now only at US$200 per day at this level.

On the UK-Continent, the TC23 dropped from WS160.68 to WS126.94

VLCC

The VLCC market peaked early in the week, and by Wednesday was falling back steadily. The 270,000 mt Middle East Gulf to China trip fell 6 points to WS54.35 which gives a daily round-trip TCE of US$32,152 basis the Baltic Exchange’s vessel description.

In the Atlantic market, the rate for 260,000 mt West Africa/China dropped 5 points to WS57.22 (corresponding to a round voyage TCE of US$35,610 per day), whilst the rate for 270,000 mt US Gulf/China managed to remain relatively steady, losing US$55,000 week-on-week to US$7,477,500 (US$34,367 per day round trip TCE), however there are reports of an Admic vessel on subjects to Resource Marine loading 3rd decade October at US$8,000,000 late on Thursday.

Suezmax

Suezmax rates have fallen away this week. In West Africa, the 130,000 mt Nigeria/UK Continent voyage shrunk by 6 points to WS73 (a daily round-trip TCE of US$22,791). The TD27 route (Guyana to UK Continent basis 130,000mt) was assessed on Thursday, 4 points lower at WS75 which translates into a daily round trip TCE of US$23,624 basis discharge in Rotterdam. In the Mediterranean and Black Sea region the rate for 135,000 mt CPC/Med eased back 6 points to WS84.60 (showing a daily TCE of US$21,841 round-trip. In the Middle East, the rate for 140,000 mt Middle East Gulf to the Mediterranean (via the Suez Canal) remained around the WS95 level.

Aframax

In the North Sea, the rate for the 80,000mt Cross-UK Continent again remained at WS115 (translating to a daily round-trip TCE of US$21,099 basis Hound Point to Wilhelmshaven).

In the Mediterranean market the rate for 80,000mt Cross-Mediterranean contracted by 7 points to WS108.89 (basis Ceyhan to Lavera, that shows a daily round trip TCE of US$19,340).

Across the Atlantic, the market softened further in an attempt to find the new low. The 70,000mt East Coast Mexico/US Gulf (TD26) route and the 70,000mt Covenas/US Gulf (TD9) route both printed at WS84.69 on Thursday, between 5-6 points lower than a week ago showing a round-trip TCE of US$5,727 and US$6,686 per day, respectively). The rate for the trans-Atlantic route of 70,000mt US Gulf/UK Continent (TD25) was static at the WS101/102 mark (a round trip TCE basis Houston/Rotterdam of US$16,173 per day).

LNG

There had been hopes that after many positive discussions at GasTech in Houston the market would come back refreshed, ready to fix and shake off the cobwebs from the summer. However, the spot LNG market has been very much like the British weather - a total washout. End week requirements have not done anything to stoke the fires, and BLNG1 Aus-Japan published down quite aggressively with brokers amending not only their expectation on rates but downgrading ideas on BB as well.

BLNG1 Aus-Japan on the 160cbm TFDE fell by US$8,900 to US$48,300 one of the lowest rates seen in a while, and though the 174cbm 2-stroke did better losing only US$7,300 with a close of US$65,100 the availability of cold on water ships is having an adverse effect on the rates. With BLNG2 Houston-Cont and BLNG3 Houston-Japan both fairing it better, it was not much of a fairytale for either. The 160cbm TFDE index fell by US$3,900 while the 174cbm 2-stroke lost US$3,100 closing at US$42,600 and US$56,400 respectively on BLNG2. BLNG3 felt similar losses moving down US$4,900 and US$3,238 on the 160cbm and 174cbm ships giving a final close of US$58,000 on the TFDE and US$76,199 on the 2-stroke ships.

Period has not seen much attention as would be expected going into the winter season, at least on the shorter multi month enquires but our 6-month assessment fell by US$2,400 to US$7,500 while both the 1-year and 3-year gained marginally to finish at 471,150 and US$80,650 respectively.

LPG

Despite some uncertain days this week the LPG market has recovered some of the recent losses. Though it remains still very much under the cosh with position lists and product both showing signs of uncertainty. Rates for both regions gained and a few dollars driven by fixtures which perked up underlying sentiment.

BLPG1 Ras Tanura-Chiba began flat after a tough week but finished up by US$2.334 to a close of US$35.667 giving a TCE earning equivalent of US$15,771 a rise of US$1,829. Despite lagging against the US, market expectations are that as the West market improves the East shall be dragged up by its bootstraps.

In the Atlantic with more cargoes working and ships getting fixed away there was positive movement across both routes. BLPG3 Houston-Chiba rose by US$8.333 despite suffering some split minds when two ships fixed nearly US$10 apart earlier in the week, but with a close of US$87.5 and a TCE earning of US$26,206 it is commanding quite a premium against the MEG. BLPG2 Houston-Chiba rose off the back of BLPG3 and with a US$5.25 gain to US$46,75 it brought TCE earnings up to US$40,832.

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